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China’s Population Declines for Fourth Year as Birth Rate Hits Record Low
MLN — 19 JAN 2026: China’s population declined for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, falling by 3.39 million to about 1.4 billion people, according to official data released on Monday. The drop marks a faster pace of decline than the previous year and underscores the scale of China’s demographic challenge.
Government figures showed the country’s birth rate fell to 5.63 births per 1,000 people, the lowest level recorded since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. At the same time, the death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000 people, its highest level since 1968, reflecting the rapid ageing of the population.
Chinese authorities have introduced a series of measures in recent years to encourage families to have more children, including ending the one-child policy in 2016, allowing two children per couple, and later expanding that limit to three children in 2021.
More recently, parents have been offered direct cash payments for children under the age of three, while some provinces have added extra incentives such as extended maternity leave.
Despite these efforts, fertility rates have remained stubbornly low. Official estimates put China’s fertility rate at around one birth per woman, well below the level needed to maintain population size. Rising living costs, expensive childcare and education, and changing social attitudes have been cited as major obstacles, according to researchers and residents interviewed by state and international media.
Authorities have also faced criticism over some policy choices, including higher taxes on contraceptives, which public health experts say could carry unintended consequences. Meanwhile, China’s ageing population is placing increasing pressure on the labour market, consumer spending and the pension system.
Government-linked research institutions have warned that pension reserves are shrinking, raising concerns about how the state will support a growing elderly population as the workforce continues to contract.
United Nations projections suggest China’s population will continue to decline in the coming decades, with long-term economic and social implications for the world’s second-largest economy.
